Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Vancouver Home Prices - Nanaimo has some catching up to do.


The chart below indicates that Vacouver's average home price has risen by over 25% since 2008.  Nanaimo's has fallen by 3%.   Why?


There are no doubt many reasons contributing to this.  One, in my opinion, relates to new zoning bylaws enacted in Vancouver and many other communities including Nanaimo.  These zoning bylaws are the rules by which we build houses.  The trend has been to allow higher density, more function in the same space.  Does this mean more "value".  What is Vancouver's market saying?

Vancouver's newer zoning rules have been in effect a few years longer than Nanaimo's new Zoning Bylaw which only came into effect in August 2011.   Vancouver also has a much larger volume of new building permits.  New rules take a while to catch on and for value to be recognized by the market and the development/building community.   Vancouver has had many more trys at building things that people want.

The run up in Vancouvers prices in 2010/11 may, in part be a reaction to Vancouver's zoning  initiatives with higher density/higher value lane way housing (2 houses on one lot, 3 kitchens total)  
Prices rose, peaked and have declined slightly in last 2 years.

I can see a similar, yet delayed, response here in Nanaimo to the similar market forces.  There has been only a handful of projects with the smaller lots, increased heights & laneway housing that our new rules allow.  

Our market is simply smaller, much less volume.  It takes longer to process new information, reaction is slower.

I know I am older & slower to react but eventually I do catch up to the pack.  

Nanaimo's market line on the graph above is the red one.  It has turned up over the last 4 months.  Is that a trend?  Will it continue to increase like Vancouver's 2010/2011 period?

Is it a good time to buy something?


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